歪歪漫画

ROCHESTER 鈥� Ensconced within a nearly impregnable flood control system, Rochester is insulated from the kind of flash flooding that once inundated homes and businesses in the city.

In 2007, when punishing rains unleashed flooding across the region, killing seven people, Rochester was largely spared while surrounding communities were ravaged.

Still, the mindset of an emergency manager is to imagine and plan for worst-case scenarios.

Could a siren system have saved lives in central Texas, where more than 100 people died, including 28 children, from flooding over the Fourth of July weekend? Would it have given campers, staff and revelers enough time to evacuate when the Guadalupe River surged more than 26 feet in less than an hour in the dead of night?

And should they be used here to warn people of flash floods?

Sirens in Minnesota blare to warn people of tornadoes and encroaching wildfires, but not for flash flooding. The Association of Minnesota Emergency Managers recently came out with recommendations for the use of sirens. None of the recommended usages included flash flooding. But should they be?

Part of the challenge is how people are trained and conditioned to respond to sirens and the message they send, said Capt. Jonathan Jacobson, of Olmsted County Emergency Management.

When sirens sound, people in Minnesota interpret the signal to mean a tornado is near and to take shelter, not to evacuate.

鈥淭he last thing I want to do as an emergency manager is to sound sirens for people to go inside when they only have five minutes before water starts pouring in their house,鈥� Jacobson said.

That element of misunderstanding was what added to the tragedy in Hawaii when wildfires devastated the island of Maui in 2023 and claimed 102 lives. When the sirens went off, people thought it was a tsunami warning and sought higher ground, heading to where the fires were blazing.

鈥淧eople were evacuating to higher locations when they should have been leaving,鈥� he said.

In August 2007, southeastern Minnesota was hit with rainfall and flooding of biblical proportions. Rainfall in excess of 15 inches fell in some areas, with the heaviest rain centered along a line from Claremont and Rochester to La Crosse and Muscoda, Wisconsin.

The downpour set a state record for the amount of rain within a 24-hour period near Hokah, Minnesota, with 15.10 inches, while unofficial readings may have exceeded 17 inches, according to a National Weather Service history. It triggered mudslides and washed out roads.

Seven people were killed. Rushford lay under water after overrunning Rush Creek鈥檚 banks. Damage costs exceeded $200 million.

鈥淚 remember being out and wondering, 鈥業s it ever going to stop raining?鈥� 鈥� said Winona County Emergency Manager Ben Klinger.

After the disaster, counties took steps to improve the area鈥檚 early warning system.

Winona County, for example, worked with the National Weather Service and FEMA to install sensors along a 10-mile stretch of the Whitewater River between St. Charles and Whitewater State Park. A cellular message automatically goes out to the 911 dispatch center and other officials when the river hits a certain level, Klinger said.

Officials also revamped the area鈥檚 SKYWARN system, a National Weather Service program that trains volunteers to be severe weather spotters.

Those measures have enhanced the area鈥檚 early warning capabilities, Klinger said.

鈥淥bviously, Texas gives you pause. We have had initial conversations reviewing our (plans), but I feel we have adequate measures in place to warn people,鈥� he said.

Each region and county is different, with its own topography and vulnerabilities. For Wabasha County officials, the focus is on the Lake Zumbro Dam, 11 miles north of Rochester.

It鈥檚 considered a 鈥渉igh hazard dam,鈥� said Wabasha County Emergency Director Brenda Tomlinson, because if it were to fail, lives would be lost downstream. A drill is held every year to test the calling trees and the emergency alert notification system.

A defining moment for the county was the 2010 flood along the Zumbro Valley, caused by several days of nonstop rain. Water poured into Lake Zumbro and overran the Zumbro dam after a small dam on Lake Shady failed. Zumbro Falls, Hammond and other communities were flooded.

鈥淚 feel like our system is pretty good, but with everything, it can use improvement,鈥� Tomlinson said.

Officials point to the role of climate change in making storms fiercer and more frequent. A warmer climate packs the atmosphere with more moisture and triggers stronger torrential storms.

The most recent National Climate Assessment shows that much of the Midwest, including Minnesota, has gotten wetter over the last several decades, by 5% to 15%. That, in turn, is making rainfall events more severe and frequent.

The Texas flood and death toll have also cast a harsh light on the mass staff reductions at two key weather and climate agencies under the Trump administration: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service. Experts say the NWS issued alerts in a timely manner over the July weekend.

Focus instead has sharpened on the lack of a siren system. Local officials considered installing one but opted not to because of the expense. Questions have also been raised about why the camp was located in a flood area along the Guadalupe River, whose reputation for flooding earned it the name 鈥淔lash Flood Alley.鈥�