MINNEAPOLIS – Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has in the sky, but his party still faces a fierce ground battle to retain control of the state.
While Walz works to sell himself to a nationwide audience as the second-in-command to a prospective Kamala Harris presidency, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is working to persuade voters to grant them another trifecta in November.
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The DFL holds razor-thin majorities in the state House and Senate, and a handful of contested House seats are likely to decide control of the lower chamber after November’s election.
Officials on both sides of the aisle expect Walz to drive down-ballot turnout in November’s election.
DFL Chair Ken Martin called Walz one of the most popular politicians in the state and said the party had seen a surge in volunteers and fundraising since Harris and then Walz have taken over the ticket.
“It's tough for down-ballot races to get attention during a presidential election," he said. "Having this excitement in the presidential race will translate to more votes in those races."
Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson of East Grand Forks said he expects Walz’s nomination to drive turnout but said picking the governor for VP could be a “double-edged sword” for Democrats.
Johnson said the increased scrutiny on Walz’s record — like Walz's handling of the as well as Republican attacks on the governor’s military record — could work against him in down-ballot races.
“He’s going to have a lot of explaining to do, as Lucille’s husband would say,” Johnson said, referring to Lucille Ball, the popular comedienne.
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In southern Minnesota, Democrats are fighting to retain two House seats in Walz’s former congressional district, which he represented for more than a decade before running for governor in 2018.
Nicollet County Democrats are working to hold onto District 18A, which includes parts of Mankato as well as North Mankato and Kasota.
Walz lived for years in Mankato and entered politics in the race for the state's first congressional district in 2006, which he won.
“In our area, Gov. Walz is held in a very positive view,” said Nicollet County DFL Chair Jen Cooklock. “He’s very good for getting Democrats, particularly in our district, to get out and vote.”
Recent elections shows the governor remains popular in the contested House district. Walz won District 18A in the 2022 gubernatorial race by wider margins than incumbent Rep. Jeff Brand in the same year and President Joe Biden in 2020, according to data compiled by the Minnesota Reformer.
On the other hand, his margin of victory in Nicollet County shrank by nearly 16 points between his first gubernatorial run in 2018 and 2022.
Cooklock says strong turnout will be key to keeping Brand in his seat.
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She’s confident Walz will drive Democrats to the polls in her district, but says it's too soon to call whether he’ll have the same effect for independent voters – though she says trading Biden for Harris has brought new outside enthusiasm and interest in the November election.
“We’ve already had a lot of people ask where they can get their (Harris-Walz) yard signs,” Cooklock said. “Obviously, I don’t have any of those yet, but we’ve had people reach out.”
In neighboring Blue Earth County, Republican Party Chair Yvonne Simon is hoping to unseat Brand in favor of the GOP-endorsed Eric Schwartz.
Simon said news of Walz’s VP pick was met with “uniform dismay” among Republicans displeased with the DFL trifecta but that she also expects a turnout boost since he’s been added to the presidential ticket.
“I’m hoping that brings attention from voters on both sides of the aisle, to make sure you get out and express your opinion,” Simon said. “Ultimately, it's always an honor to have a candidate from your area. There’s no denying that. … The ultimate need is for voters to get out and express their opinion instead of just sitting back and saying, ‘somebody else will do it.’”
But Ryan Dawkins, an assistant professor of political science at Carlton College, says organizers shouldn’t count on Walz to drive turnout down the ballot.
In a mid-sized state like Minnesota, a VP pick’s “home state advantage” will likely be pretty small, Dawkins said, especially with the degree of polarization in today’s politics.
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“This is largely going to be a turnout story, and the amount of turnout that Walz is going to entice in Minnesota is probably going to be relatively small,” Dawkins said, pointing out the state already has one of the highest turnout rates in the country.
Walz’s ability to appeal to both progressives and rural voters is seen by Democrats as one of his key strengths nationally and in southern Minnesota.
“He reminded me of a (Montana Democratic Sen.) Jon Tester – in a very Republican area, and kept getting reelected I think for some of the reasons that Jon Tester is so strong,” said Jim Worthley, DFL Party Chair in Winona County. “He’s a kind of common, plain-speaking folk and people like him.”
Worthley, like Cooklock, is fighting to retain a DFL-controlled seat in a county that’s shifted red. A Tuesday primary will decide who will take on Republican challenger Aaron Repinski after longtime Rep. Gene Pelowski announced plans to retire after 38 years in office.
Worthley said local Democrats have typically done well in the city of Winona but have faltered in rural areas.
A similar dynamic is present in District 18A, Simon said, where university students at Minnesota State University-Mankato and Guastavus Adolpus College balance out farmers and business owners.
Walz has a track record of winning in this part of the state, but that’s diminished in more recent elections. Winona County went blue in 2018 only to flip on narrow margins in 2022; his former congressional seat has been occupied by Republicans since 2019.
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Still, Walz won in District 18A in 2022. In fact, he won in all 14 of the currently-contested House districts in 2022, including ones with GOP representatives, as well as the DFL-controlled Senate district that will be the subject of a special election in November and will decide control of the upper chamber.
“There’s a lot of degrees of freedom from being on the VP ticket to local or state level congressional races, or state level legislative races,” Dawkins said. “But if it's just part of that turnout story, he might be a boost at least on the margins. And when you’re talking about close elections, margins matter.”
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