歪歪漫画

ST. PAUL 鈥� In the last few weeks, severe storms have spun up tornadoes across Minnesota, Iowa and North Dakota, with one twister near Enderlin claiming three lives last month.

In Minnesota alone, there have been 48 tornado reports so far this season, according to preliminary data from the Storm Prediction Center. That鈥檚 already more than the annual average of 43, and the most since 2022, when the state saw 60 tornadoes.

鈥淚t鈥檚 just weather system after weather system coming through the region, and those weather systems are interacting with a lot of instability, that kind of warm and humid air that helps generate the severe weather,鈥� said Kenny Blumenfeld, senior climatologist with the Minnesota State Climate Office.

Will this active pattern continue?

Blumenfeld said he and other forecasters see no sign of a shutoff to this active pattern in the coming weeks.

鈥淭here is, of course, no guarantee that we're going to get the same pacing of tornadoes and heavy rainfall events,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut you know, a lot of times in the last few years we鈥檝e had these active patterns, and then somewhere on the horizon, you can see everything just ending.鈥�

Over the last several years, Minnesota has entered a drought stage at the end of the growing season, but that鈥檚 not apparent for 2025.

鈥淚t certainly could be just beyond the horizon, but we haven鈥檛 really seen any slam-dunk indication from the forecast models that the active pattern is about to end,鈥� Blumenfeld said.

More tornadoes or better detection?

While climate change is bringing more frequent and intense severe weather to Minnesota, Blumenfeld said we shouldn鈥檛 be quick to assume we鈥檙e getting more tornadoes.

鈥淥n one hand, we know the tornadoes that we鈥檝e had because they hit things. On the other hand, it鈥檚 easier to see them,鈥� Blumenfeld said. 鈥淥ur detection is better than ever, our spotting is better than ever, our verification and validation is better than ever. So sometimes now we鈥檙e able to count tornadoes that maybe wouldn't have been counted in the past.鈥�

But one thing is pretty clear.

鈥淗owever you slice it, we鈥檙e above average, and therefore likely to finish well above average for the season,鈥� he said.