FARGO — Since satellite-based observation of Arctic sea ice began in the late 1970s, a decline in ice has been observed and measured. The decline was relatively slow from the late 1970s through the mid 1990s, then increased greatly for about 15 years. Since 2007, however, the decline of Arctic sea ice has leveled off. New research recently published in the journal "Science" has shown that the Arctic Dipole, an oscillating pattern of wind and water currents with an approximately 15 year cycle, has been keeping the Arctic ice loss relatively in check.
The present phase tends to favor high pressure in northeastern Canada and low pressure over eastern Siberia, which forces ocean currents into the Arctic from colder areas. It is expected that when the dipole switches to the opposite phase, which is likely to be soon, the annual decline in Arctic sea ice will accelerate again.