歪歪漫画

BRAINERD, Minn. - The worst is probably still yet to come.

A free presentation about climate change by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources at Central Lakes College in Brainerd forecasts a gloomy future for Minnesotans.

"About half of my time is developing these materials, doing new climatic analysis or coming to various places and giving presentations about what's going on in Minnesota with our climate," Senior Climatologist Kenneth Blumenfeld told the audience at the college's Chalberg Theatre.

The "Climate Chaos in Minnesota" presentation by Blumenfeld on Wednesday, April 4, touched upon trends that seem bleak for Crow Wing County's outdoor enthusiasts.

According to Blumenfeld, the most pronounced trends include the state becoming warmer and wetter, with cold temperatures and extreme rainfall increasing.

"What we're talking about is the scientific background on what's going on with our climate, including what's expected," Blumenfeld said.

His presentation was based on peer-reviewed sources, standard climate science data sources, and is publicly available and/or replicable, Blumenfeld emphasized.

"Not just in Minnesota, the Upper Midwest, the United States, North America and globe-and even when you subtract the land and just look at the oceans-every data source says within a few years of 1970, this is where you start to see the temperatures really shoot up," he said.

Blumenfeld said important hazards that affect Minnesotans, but are not "worsening," include hot days, warm nights and heat waves (with future increases likely); drought (with future increases possible), and tornadoes and severe convective storms (with a future that is unclear).

"We are actually not seeing increases in hot days or warm nights or heat waves. ... Future increases are likely," he said. "I don't think we can guarantee them, and we don't know exactly when they're going to arrive, and that always makes me nervous."

The State Climatology Office relies heavily on the data-gathering efforts of others; several public entities in Minnesota gather climate data, according to its website.

"It's a hard one to fight, but one perception is everything sort of bad, every instance of inclement weather, must be true or must tell us the climate is changing, and that's not true because we've had-Minnesota has been a brutal place ever since there have been people here," he said.

"But we have some hazards in Minnesota that are definitely changing, and the ones that aren't-or we don't have enough information to know if they're changing-that doesn't mean we should ignore them because they're still hazardous."

Blumenfeld's specialties include tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flash floods, blizzards and winter weather, weather and climate of Minnesota, and climatic extremes.

"In Crow Wing County in 2016, that was like one of the stormiest summers you've ever had, but really the state and the region are in a little bit of a severe weather slump for the most part ... and it was mostly straight-line winds knocking down power lines, causing problems," he said.

"But when we look at the state as a whole, and we look at more than just one year ... we don't see any obvious increases in the severity of those kinds of weather events or in their numbers. And this is one area in where climate change or projections where there is really no consensus."

He has the "highest confidence" climate change has already impacted Minnesota winters and rainfall, resulting in milder winters, and larger and more frequent rainfall extremes, respectively.

"We have more freeze and thaw issues because the days that used to be real cold now remain above freezing. ... And one of the drawbacks is it has really limited winter recreation. It's degraded the quality of ice time on some of the lakes, especially in early winter," he said.

Blumenfeld has "moderately high" confidence climate change has impacted the state's heavy snowfall with more events, resulting in power outages, traffic problems and structural failure.

"Interestingly even though winter is shrinking, heavy snowfall still seems to be getting heavier. ... Most places are seeing more heavy snow even though the amount of time when there is snow on the ground is shrinking," he said.

He has confidence-"highest," "high" or "moderately high"-winter in the state by midcentury will continue to rapidly decline due to climate change and that rainfall will result in unprecedented events, while heat waves will increase in severity, coverage and duration.

"We are kind of on winter's farewell tour," Blumenfeld said.

The father of two has a doctorate from the University of Minnesota, and was the co-creator and host of the 50-minute documentary, "The Story of Winter: Minnesota's Most Iconic Season."

"Climate is definitely global and it is an interrelated set of phenomenon. We can't really separate Minnesota from the global climate," Blumenfeld said.

"But in my line of work, as a public servant, I deal with people who manage natural resources, farmers, business owners, communities, counties, or soil and water conservation districts, and they need to make decisions here."

Because weather affects everyone, the Climatology Office strives to "understand and predict the weather in order to better our lives."

"It's about what do we know about the atmosphere and what we understand to be happening to it, in terms of things that we are putting in it, and if we push 'play,' how is it going to change, what can we expect," he said of climate change.