BEMIDJI — One look outside tells you this hasn’t been a typical winter.
Months of temperatures regularly above freezing and brief snowfalls that barely stick to the ground more than a few days haven't been what anyone pictures when they think of winter in the Northland.
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While some residents have been enjoying the warmer temperatures and sunshine, those who rely on winter’s ice and snow for business have been having a difficult time.
“I didn’t make a dime this winter,” shared Dick Beardsley, a Bemidji area fishing guide who normally rents ice houses out to anglers during the winter.
Because of the warm weather and the inconsistency of the ice on area lakes, Beardsley never felt it was safe to put his rentals out. He normally rents around 100 houses a winter; this year that number was zero.
“I was out checking (the ice) almost on a daily basis,” he said. “It’d be 10, 11 inches in one spot and I’d walk 50 feet and it’d be seven inches. I need a minimum of 15 inches of good, clear ice and I just wasn’t finding it out there.”
Beardsley isn’t the only one who’s been affected by the warm weather. Several winter events have had to be canceled due to a lack of snow, from the Finlandia Cross Country Ski Marathon to a planned revival of the Paul Bunyan Sled Dog Challenge.
People who would have traveled to participate in those events didn’t have a reason to come to Bemidji this year, and neither did many of the tourists who love the area for its ice fishing, snowmobiling and other winter recreation.
“We rely on cold, snow and good ice for tourism. From an economic standpoint, it’s hurt a lot of businesses in our area,” Beardsley said. “I’ve lived in Minnesota all my life. Some winters have come later, but I’ve never seen anything like this before.”
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So why has the weather been so unusual? What does it mean for the rest of the year, and are winters like this going to become more common?
What's behind the warm temperatures
Mild winters with little snow aren’t so unusual, but this winter hasn’t just been mild.
“It’s not unusual to have a January thaw or have temperatures exceed 32 for a few days at a time,” explained Kenneth Blumenfeld, a senior climatologist at Minnesota’s climatology office. “What is unusual is how frequently the temperatures have been above freezing, how far they’ve gone above freezing. That’s not really something that happens in a typical winter.”
Part of the explanation lies with El Niño, a weather pattern connected to warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
“We’ve had a very strong El Niño," Blumenfeld added. "When you get all of that warm ocean energy and water, it has an influence on the weather systems that pass by. It changes their size, shape, even where they go.”
Milder winters can be expected in Minnesota during years with El Niño, but this winter’s pattern has something else that’s set it apart.
“There’s been very little change,” said James Kaiser, a meteorologist in Grand Forks with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “Typically (the pattern) would sit here for a while and then it would change as it tries to balance itself out… the pattern that started up in November has been stationary.”
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Except for a brief period in January that almost resembled a typical Minnesota winter, El Niño has remained in place, locking in warm air over the region and preventing colder Arctic air from moving in.
But El Niño isn't the only thing to blame, another factor has been the lack of snow.
“We didn’t develop a snowpack in (the Northern Hemisphere),” Kaiser explained. “Without the snowpack, it’s a much slower process to grow that cold. (The northern, colder air mass in Canada and the Arctic) was in a weakened or less substantial state most of the winter.”
But of course, there's another elephant in the room. Winters have also been getting warmer as a result of climate change.
“Minnesota’s winters have gotten warmer over the decades, by an average of 6 or 7 degrees just since 1970,” Blumenfeld said. “A typical winter day in the Bemidji area is about 6 degrees warmer because the whole climate system is warming.”
These three factors are the main reasons this winter has felt so drastically different.
"Some of (this winter's) warming is just El Niño, some of it is feedback from not having as much snow, and some of it is just because the whole climate is getting warmer," Blumenfeld explained.
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Expected consequences
The lack of snow also means that fire season has already begun, and a higher chance of wildfires is anticipated throughout the summer.
“All of our fuel is ready to burn sooner than usual,” shared Ben Lang, a forester with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. “The Bemidji area has already had some fires, and as you go further and further south it gets more and more active.”
Precipitation has been around average for the winter, even though it's come primarily in the form of rain rather than snow. But because there hasn’t been the usual snow cover, fuels like grasses and undergrowth are already exposed and drying out.
“Usually our heavier fuels are under snow and waterlogged and take a couple of months to dry out. This year they’re receptive to burning already,” Lang said. “We are in active fire season as of (mid-February).”
As such, Lang encourages everyone to be particularly cautious and vigilant when starting fires for recreational or practical purposes.
“A lot of our early season fires come from people who have burn piles,” he said. “If they didn’t get completely consumed and there’s still some heat left, when we get those warm, dry, windy days they tend to escape. Risk increases with the conditions that we’re in. Just make sure that you’re putting that fire out.”
Risk is expected to remain high as the region continues experiencing drought conditions.
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“We went into winter in a moderate drought, we’re going to continue that drought right into the spring,” Lang said. “When you have repeated droughts year after year it’s stressful. Droughts are very tough on ecosystems.”
Adapting to the weather
But experts don’t expect winters like this year’s to become commonplace in northern Minnesota.
“This winter is not normal at all. This is not the new winter, this is an extraordinary winter even when you consider that winters have been getting warmer,” Blumenfeld said.
While winters like this may become more likely when variables like El Niño and a lack of snow cover align, a normal winter complete with ice and cold will still be most common.
“You will get winter, maybe even next year. We will get our snow and our cold,” Blumenfeld shared. “It probably won’t be as cold as it used to be, but it will be winter.”
With how tough this year has been for Beardsley from a business perspective, he's looking forward to winters like that returning. But he’s also doing his best to enjoy things as they are right now.
“You go through these ebbs and flows. A year from now we might be up to our eyebrows in snow,” he said. “At this point, I’ve gotten over the lack of winter, now I’m enjoying it for what it is.”
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And he’s not alone. Lots of people have been adapting to the unusual circumstances of this winter, using the area’s parks and trails in higher numbers to take advantage of the warm weather and sunshine.
“We’ve seen more people on the trails and in the parks because it’s been warmer out,” said Marcia Larson, Bemidji’s director of Parks and Recreation. “We’ve been able to adapt a lot of our activities. Instead of snowshoeing, we’ve been doing hiking. It’s just a different use.”
With this attitude, Larson and the parks department have been able to keep up with the atypical winter season. But they still hope that next winter will bring back the snow and cold that so many northern Minnesotans love.
“Hopefully this doesn’t happen frequently. I love the winter season, that’s why we live here,” she left off. “We’re hopeful that next year there will be snow.”
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